Prospects for Law Graduates – is it as hard as graduates are saying to land a legal job?

If you are a law student or law graduate you would no doubt have heard about the difficulties of landing a graduate job. It is anecdotally acknowledged that this is the hardest time since the recession in the early 1990s for law graduates. Lawyers Weekly have reported on the difficult legal recruitment market in numerous articles. In recent years, even the mainstream media have commented on the difficulties law students face in finding employment in the law after they graduate. But is this speculation actually true?

In July 2014 the Law Society of New South Wales established a working group to investigate and report on the employment prospects for law graduates. The resulting report titled “Future Prospects of Law Graduates: Report and Recommendations” was released this week and can be found at https://www.lawsociety.com.au/community/forlawstudents/LawGraduatesReport/index.htm  

The most shocking thing about the report is that the data analysed appears to show that NSW law graduates are not exceeding new entrants into the legal profession, suggesting there is not an oversupply of law graduates.

Data used to determine if there is a law graduate oversupply

The working group established a model to track the movement of NSW law students through the system. The model assumes that the Class of 2013 were admitted in 2014 and commenced practicing as lawyers in 2015. If we take the Class of 2013, the model shows there were 2,555 law graduates that year. 2,267 went on to be admitted. 2,970 new practising certificates were issued to lawyers who were admitted within the last 12 months. From this data it appears there were sufficient opportunities for law graduates to obtain employment as a lawyer and that graduates are not exceeding demand.

It is interesting to note the reduced number of law graduates from NSW universities in 2012. The number dropped from 2,245 in 2011 to 1,945 in 2012. I was at university at the time and knew several people who delayed their graduation because of the perceived terrible graduate job market. If enough students delayed their graduation by under loading subjects, this would explain the increase in graduates in 2013 and the perceived oversupply of graduates in 2014 and 2015. However, the data used by the working group shows that even for the 2103 cohort, there were sufficient legal opportunities. 

(Table taken from page 10 of the report)

It is acknowledged in the report there are several issues with this model. I also add my own observations:

·   1. Not everyone follows the pattern of graduating one year, being admitted the next and starting practice the year after. A substantial amount of graduates would be admitted and obtain a practising certificate the year after graduation. A substantial number of graduates may go through the process at a slower rate.

·    2. It is assumed that a graduate would not obtain a practising certificate unless they were working as a lawyer due to the expense of obtaining the practising certificate. It is assumed new practising certificates issued equates to graduates converted to employed lawyers.

·   3. The figures show practising certificates issued to solicitors admitted for one year or less. Not all practising certificate holders will have recently graduated.

·    4. Quite a few graduates from interstate come to NSW to work and this practising certificate figure could include non-NSW graduates. The admission figures could also include non-NSW students who study College of Law in NSW with an eye to being admitted and being employed in NSW.

Common complaint: JD students have flooded the market

A common complaint among undergraduate law students is that the introduction of JD courses in NSW has “flooded” the current legal market and that JD students have “stolen” jobs traditionally taken by undergraduates. The working group’s data also debunks this myth, as JD students were included in the above table and the data suggests there were sufficient legal jobs for all graduates from NSW law schools. The table below shows all the accredited law degrees in NSW.

(table taken from page 12 of the Report)

The proliferation of JD courses in the past 10 years is apparent. However, the number of students the JD courses have added to the total number of law graduates is less than 350. This is less than the increase in the number of law undergraduates the past few years. The report includes a useful table showing the increase in student numbers. The worst culprits for the increase in student numbers appears to be the University of Sydney and University of Western Sydney undergraduate courses.

(table taken from page 13 of the Report)

Then why is there anxiety about graduate prospects?

I am not 100% convinced by the data used by the working group. The difficulties of law graduates finding employment seems real. However, if there are sufficient graduate law jobs than what has caused all the anxiety?

The working group found that there was significant anxiety amongst the legal profession about the lack of employment opportunities for law graduates. The level of anxiety among law students themselves was found to be very high. Even if employment prospects are high, obtaining a graduate job can be stressful, so it is difficult to tell if the level of stress among law students has increased in the last few years due to increasing difficulty of obtaining a graduate job or if law students have always found it stressful obtaining a graduate job. Again, more data is needed.

Conclusion

One of the working group’s key recommendations is that more accurate data is obtained to track law students’ graduate destinations both within and outside the legal profession. The last time an in-depth study on the employment of law graduates was done was in 1989 when the Centre for Legal Education published a detailed study on graduate career destinations. The working group also recommended that a national approach be taken, especially given increasing concerns about excessive law student numbers in Victoria and Queensland.

My favourite recommendation is that it is important law students are provided with accurate information about the state of the legal market. Anecdotal evidence and uncertainty does not help law student anxiety. Solid evidence and an in-depth study will not only aid in the transparency of universities taking on more law students but assist in reducing stress associated with obtaining graduate employment. If it the data from the working group’s report is proven correct and there is not an oversupply of law graduates, this will help reduce the stress law students feel about their future.